The past month has been an interesting one, and there certainly could have been a lot to write about. My apologies for being silent. I want to write a bit about the Israeli political scene on the eve of the period of transition in this country.
This year, 33 parties ran for the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset. Only parties that achieve 2% of the national vote (there's no regional representation in Israel) receive seats in the Knesset, so 12 of the 33 parties will actually receive some of the Parliament's 120 seats. Here are the election results:
Kadima (centrist) 28
Likud (center-right) 27
Yisrael Beitenu (right) 15
Labor (center-left) 13
Shas (Sephardic ultra-orthodox) 11
United Torah Judaism (Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox) 5
Hadash (Jewish/Arab far left) 4
United Arab List-Ta'al (Arab) 4
National Union (Religious Zionist) 4
Meretz (left) 3
Habayit Hayehudi (Religious Zionist) 3
Balad (Arab) 3
Voter turnout: 65.2% (low for Israel but still high for comparable democracies)
So what happens now? Today and tomorrow, the President of Israel, Shimon Peres, will be in consultation with the heads of these twelve parties. Based on that consultation, and possibly drawing on his own prerogative, the President will ask one of the party heads to form a government. Historically, the leader of the party with the highest number of seats is charged with forming the government.
What does it mean to form a government? A majority of the Knesset (61 seats) has to agree to be the "government;" the remaining Members of Knesset (MKs) make up the "opposition." Every party in the government agrees to support everything that the government does. So, for example, if there's a Prime Minister from the Likud party who is heading the government, and you're the Defense Minister from the Labor party, if the government decides to go to war with Gaza, you have to go along with it. Similarly, if you're a non-cabinet MK and an issue comes to a vote, you are contractually obligated to vote yea. This means that so long as the government stands, what it agrees to do is what gets done.
It's not as monolithic as it sounds, of course. The Prime Minister can't order that the government act in a certain way, and agreements are made in advance that dictate the direction of the governing of the state. So, if you're in the Labor party, and you agree to join a government with Shas (an ultra-orthodox party), both parties will agree in advance to support, for example, increased child support payments as well as an increased budget for secular education.
So, what does the opposition do? Well, not very much. They make speeches to show how the government is failing to live up to the best interests of the State in hopes that, next time there are elections, their party will fare better as the "told you so" party.
Of course, a party can join the government if it agrees to abide by its policy directions, and a party can leave the government and join the opposition. Thus, if you're Shas and part of your agreement to be in the government is the maintenance of the power of the rabbinical court, and the government puts up for a vote a change in the marriage laws that make civil marriage legal, you're likely to leave the government rather than support that initiative.
This happens relatively frequently. So, although elections are scheduled to happen every four years in Israel, only twice in its history has a government lasted a full four years. Usually, a party will leave the government, making the government drop below 61 seats and forcing new elections. That's exactly what happened last year: Ehud Olmert (Kadima) resigned as Prime Minister, and Tzipi Livni (Kadima) was charged with forming a government. She couldn't convince Shas to stay in the government (or, alternately, Shas couldn't convince Livni to keep them in the government), so new elections were called.
Which brings us to the possibilities of the current results. Let's review:
Kadima (Tzipi Livni) 28
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) 27
Yisrael Beitenu (Avigdor Lieberman) 15
Labor (Ehud Barak) 13
Shas 11
United Torah Judaism 5
Hadash 4
United Arab List-Ta'al 4
National Union 4
Meretz 3
Habayit Hayehudi 3
Balad 3
As you can see, Kadima and Likud are very close in seats, but neither of them is anywhere close to the 61 seat majority. So, if either Livni or Netanyahu (nicknamed Bibi) are charged with making the government, they'll have some serious work to do. Theoretically, either could be asked by Peres to form the government, though it's more likely that, due to the large number of right-oriented parties (65 seats), Bibi will get the offer. Here are some possibilities about where the government could end up:
1. Netanyahu at the head of a right-wing government
This would be the simplest solution. Bibi could probably fairly easily form a coalition of:
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Likud 27
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Shas 11
United Torah Judaism 5
National Union 4
Habayit Hayehudi 3
TOTAL 65
This arrangement would result in a very right-wing government in Israel. Likud has already come out against the two-state solution, and although Yisrael Beiteinu is strongly in favor of the two-state solution, its peace process involves the forcible relocation of Jews and Arabs to their "new homes" and the administration of loyalty tests to all Arabs who already have Israeli citizenship. The path to peace seems rather grim in this scenario if you ask me.
Now, Netanyahu himself isn't extremely right-wing, and I don't think he wants to lead the most liberal segment of a very right-wing government. For one thing, it would simply be difficult to advance his own agenda. For another, such a right-wing government would look very bad internationally, especially with America. After a war in Lebanon two years ago and a war in Gaza less than two months ago, a reactionary government bordering on having racist elements is not what Israel needs internationally.
And on top of all that, the parties listed above would not get along with one another easily. Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu is extremely secular and wants to significantly decrease the power of the rabbinical court and to make civil marriage legal in Israel. The spiritual advisor of Shas, Ovadia Yosef, has called Lieberman Satan, so an alliance between them would be shaky at best.
All in all, if this government is formed, it will (in my opinion) do harm to Israel and won't last more than a year.
2. Tzipi Livni at the head of a center-left government
If Livni gets pegged to form the government, she could theoretically put something like this together (bearing in mind that no Arab party, even the more moderate Hadash, is at all likely to join a government now or in the near future):
 
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Kadima 28
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Labor 13
Shas 11
United Torah Judaism 5
Meretz 3
TOTAL 75
Shas and UTJ have already agreed to work together as a team during this coalition process, so if you need one, you need them both. But without Yisrael Beiteinu, Livni can't make it to 61, so once again, this government would pit bitter enemies against one another. On top of all that, Labor, which has historically been the most dominant party in Israeli politics, had a poor showing this year and has more or less already decided to join the opposition in order to regroup and refocus its message for the next election cycle.
So, this government, though theoretically possible, is extremely unlikely and wouldn't last very long anyway. Thus, there's virtually no way to keep Likud out of the government. I think the best we (read: I) can hope for is something like this:
3. Netanyahu at the head of a centrist national unity government
If Bibi doesn't want a right-wing government, he could put together (assuming Labor stays in the opposition, which I'm assuming it will if Likud forms the coalition):
Likud 27
Kadima 28
Yisrael Beitenu 15
TOTAL 70 (+ other parties that want to tag along)
OR
Likud 27
Kadima 28
Shas 11
United Torah Judaism 5
TOTAL 71 (+ other parties that want to tag along)
OR
Likud 27
Kadima 28
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Shas 11
United Torah Judaism 5
TOTAL 86 (+ other parties that want to tag along)
In any of these governments, Kadima would be given significant ministerial portfolios (Foreign Minister, e.g.), but probably so would Yisrael Beiteinu (Defense or Education, e.g.). I'm very wary about Lieberman as Defense OR Education minister, and I hope it doesn't come to that. On the other hand, I'm not very comfortable with Shas and UTJ being the primary coalition partners either.
Regardless of the details, this government would be mildly more stable than the previous ones because of the large number of total seats. It would be more centrist than Option #1, but the government would probably fall if it tried to make a peace deal (as Yisrael Beiteinu would likely bail) ... not that it would if Bibi is Prime Minister anyway. This government could probably continue with a hard-line foreign policy and fairly conservative domestic policy for a couple years but probably won't last the full four-year term. Unfortunately, I think that the government we get will look something like this.
However, there's always a chance for:
4. Livni at the head of a centrist national unity government
If Lieberman throws his support behind Livni at the outset and encourages Peres to charge her with forming the government (which is the only way she can get the nod), it's possible she could build a government that looks like this:
Kadima 28
Likud 27
Yisrael Beitenu 15
TOTAL 70 (+ other parties that want to tag along)
OR (even better)
Kadima 28
Likud 27
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Labor 13
TOTAL 83 (+ other parties that want to tag along)
OR (much less likely but my favored future)
Kadima 28
Likud 27
Labor 13
TOTAL 68 (+ other parties that want to tag along)
Any of these scenarios would have more or less the same outlook as #3; however, with Tzipi Livni as Prime Minister, I'm much more optimistic about progress with the peace process (especially if Labor can be coaxed into the government). Lieberman is a scary man to give power to, but I'd be much more comfortable with Livni keeping him in check than Bibi. Again, I think #1 and #3 are the most likely scenarios, but crazy things can always happen in this country. We'll just have to see.
The government won't actually be formed for 3 weeks at the very least, so we all have some waiting to do. At school, we engaged in a coalition exercise based on these election results, and I got a good first-hand taste of what coalition-building is like - it's really very complex. I'll be following the results with somewhat disappointed fascination, most likely, and I hope that things will be all right in the end. Peace is in our future--I know it is--it's only a matter of how much time and how many lives we go through to get there.
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